Gas is five bucks a gallon. Rent just hit a new high. Your check barely covers groceries, and your kid’s field trip just added another $30 to the pile. So you do what millions of Americans do when the math stops mathing: you head to Dollar Tree.
You’re not the only one. When the economy takes a nosedive, Dollar Tree stock often does the opposite. It rises.
The Dollar Store Mentality
When people feel broke, they don’t stop spending, they just start spending differently. It’s called trading down. That $5 bottle of shampoo at Target? Now it’s $1.25 at Dollar Tree. You might not even like the brand, but when every dollar counts, you make it work.
That shift isn’t just a one-off. It’s a pattern. Every recession, more middle-class families walk through those green doors. Some stay even after things bounce back. Because once people realize they can survive without name brands, it sticks.
Also worth noting: some of those brand names you do recognize? They’re often smaller sizes than you’d find at big-box stores. It gives the illusion of a better deal, and sometimes, that’s enough.
Recession? Business is Booming
Here’s what makes Dollar Tree powerful:
- Low overhead: No frills. Cheap locations. Basic shelves.
- Price perception: Even now with the bump to $1.25 and beyond, people still feel like they’re getting a deal.
- Volume sales: High foot traffic, quick turnover. People grab baskets, not carts, but it adds up.
In Q2 of 2023, Dollar Tree reported a revenue increase of over 8% year-over-year, while many mid-range retailers were bleeding out. That’s the difference between businesses that need economic sunshine to thrive, and businesses built for bad weather.
And now with Dollar Tree Plus locations popping up across the country, they’re offering higher-priced items ($3, $5, even $7 ranges) to capture more market share, especially for household goods and seasonal items. That tiered pricing strategy helps them appeal to a wider shopper base while still keeping the budget-friendly reputation.
Dollar Tree Isn’t Just Dollar Tree
Here’s a little-known fact: Dollar Tree owns Family Dollar. That expands its reach beyond rock-bottom pricing. Family Dollar caters more to everyday staples than one-off bargain buys. Think milk, frozen food, detergent.
This makes Dollar Tree a hybrid beast in the retail world:
- Dollar Tree: rock-bottom, fixed-price hunting ground
- Family Dollar: discount convenience store for the working poor
Together, they scoop up customers from Walmart, Walgreens, and even grocery chains when belts tighten.
The Psychology of Cheap
When you feel out of control financially, Dollar Tree gives you a hit of control. You walk in with $10 and walk out with ten things.
Well, not exactly. It used to be that way, but now with prices bumped up to $1.25 or more, that same $10 might only get you 7 or 8 items. Still, in a world where most places are jacking prices even higher, Dollar Tree feels like a win.
That kind of value-perception creates brand loyalty during the worst times, not the best. It turns struggling shoppers into repeat customers, not because of ads or prestige, but because it fits their life when nothing else does.
And now, in 2025, it’s important to use the Dollar Tree app for deals that don’t show up on in-store signs. Whether it’s $1 fries at McDonald’s or BOGO items, savvy shoppers know the best steals aren’t always in plain sight.
A Story That Says It All
A close family friend who’s 70 years old lives below the poverty line. She’s poor by every official definition. At the end of the month, if she’s lucky, she has just enough change to buy a pack of her favorite coffee at Dollar Tree. Sometimes, she doesn’t even have that.
One holiday season, she had saved up her coins to buy it, but the store employee refused to count her change. Didn’t want to deal with it. So she put it back. On her way home, she found a quarter on the sidewalk. She turned right around, walked back, and bought her coffee because she felt now she wasn’t going to be too much of a burden.
I told her she had no shame in that. It wasn’t about her, it was the clerk who couldn’t be bothered to treat her with dignity. But she got her coffee. And that matters.
Something to Watch
Let’s be clear: Dollar Tree isn’t sexy. It’s not Apple. It’s not Tesla. You won’t brag about owning shares of a store with off-brand dish soap and knockoff cereal. But during a downturn? It punches above its weight.
- Strong margins
- Built-in demand during recessions
- Ability to raise prices slightly without spooking customers
During the 2008 crisis, discount retail stocks outperformed the market. In 2020’s crash? Same thing. Dollar Tree often holds or even gains while big-name consumer discretionary stocks sink.
Plus, Dollar Tree isn’t heavily reliant on digital infrastructure or global tech supply chains, which means it’s less vulnerable to shocks like semiconductor shortages or shipping delays. Simplicity becomes strength when the world gets complicated.
Note: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Relatable, Resilient, and Always Busy
You don’t need to be rich to understand Dollar Tree. You just need to be human.
It’s where people go when they can’t afford to go anywhere else. And that’s why investors should pay attention.
Because while other companies beg people to spend during a recession, Dollar Tree just opens the doors. People show up. They always do.
Liked Part III? Check out Part I on Coca-Cola and Part II on McDonald’s & P&G to learn why some companies don’t just survive recessions, they grow.
The Broke College Student 
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