Have you ever watched one small thing happen and realized later it wasn’t small at all? That’s exactly what happened to me recently. I was at an event where there’s usually a full hot lunch, catered trays, real meals, the whole setup.

But this time?

Snacks from Costco. No catered lunch. Instead, there were:

• granola bars
• beef jerky
• Some mini unreal candies
• a single small case of pastries
• a small tub of assorted cookies
• mandarin oranges
• bottled water
• Small bags of chips

Nothing wrong with these items, people ate, people talked, people connected. But you could feel the difference immediately. It wasn’t the usual warm meal people had come to expect, especially since many arrived straight from classes, work, or commuting. A hot lunch isn’t just food; it’s a small stability signal. It says: We planned for you. We budgeted for you. You matter here.

When I spoke with one of the associate directors afterward, I could tell the situation weighed on her. She joked lightly about the “cold lunch, ( I tried to assure her it was okay, that people were still fed and the event was still helpful) but there was a pause, the kind administrators get when they’re trying to keep events afloat with shrinking resources. She didn’t complain, but she didn’t need to. I knew. Everyone knew.

Budgets were being slashed. And this wasn’t unique to one program. This was campus-wide.

And the reason behind these cuts wasn’t just ideological. It wasn’t just about DEI. ( although these do play a role in the lack of funding across disciplinary fields) It wasn’t about a single policy. It was about a domino effect triggered by something most people would never think about:

International students not being able to get their visas processed or choosing to go elsewhere.

Today, we’re breaking down how administrative overreach, even unintentional, even seemingly minor, can trigger a chain reaction that affects programs, students, communities, and the entire economic ecosystem of a university.

Just like Consumer Theory breaks down everyday choices, this post breaks down how government decisions create economic ripple effects, step by step, in plain language anyone can understand.

Why This Topic Matters (and Why It’s Bigger Than Politics, Regardless of Who is in Office)

When people hear “administrative overreach,” they imagine dramatic conflicts or political fighting. But most overreach isn’t loud. Most of it is quiet:

• visa backlogs
• delays in federal processing
• freezes on grants
• new requirements that slow down operations
• increased paperwork bottlenecks
• reduced departmental autonomy

Nothing that grabs headlines. But these things choke systems from the inside.

Think of it like lowering the water pressure in your entire house. The pipes don’t burst; they just stop delivering what’s needed. You only notice when the shower sputters and the sink trickles.

That’s exactly what’s happening in higher education.

And the hot-lunch-turned-snack-table was just the first visible crack in the system.

Step 1: Minimal Visa Delays → Still, Fewer International Students Arriving

When she finally opened up, she told me that visa delays have become so severe that even accepted students with funding, housing, and placements ready to go simply cannot get into the country in time. Others, as we have seen through interviews, are too scared to come and have decided against coming into the country at this time due to the current administration. Who could blame them?

“The numbers, and the slight decline, is definitely in line with what we’re seeing in national trends,” said Kim Lovaas, UW Seattle’s director of International Student Services. “So it’s not alarming to us. It’s what we were expecting and anticipating.”

Lovaas said the Seattle campus’ slight drop in international students could be due to a number of reasons. It’s possible international students were discouraged by recent federal policy shifts scrutinizing student visas. But her team was surprised to see minimal visa delays for incoming students this fall.

International student population drops at University of Washington.

On contrast…

Yet, according to NAFSA (the Association of International Educators), delays in student visas could prevent up to 150,000 international students from arriving in the U.S. for the Fall 2025 semester, with a potential economic impact of $7 billion.

What’s Driving the Decline?

• Visa Interview Suspension: Between May 27 and June 18, 2025, student visa interviews were
  paused during the peak issuance season for students seeking to enroll in a U.S. institution this
  fall. As announced on June 18, the resumption of interviews carried a directive that U.S.
  consulates implement new social media vetting protocols and restore appointments within five
  days, with scant guidance provided.

Fall 2025 International Student Enrollment Outlook and Economic Impact

Whether due to visa delays or international students choosing not to come to the U.S. during this period, the ripple effects are real. Even with potential stabilization and fewer delays, the unpredictability of the situation may have caused some students to choose alternative destinations for their education

Imagine this:

You’re admitted.
You’ve saved money.
You’ve prepared for years.
You’re ready to study engineering, finance, or computer science.
And because a document didn’t process, your future is on pause.

International students make up a huge percentage of students in:

• computer science
• engineering
• finance
• analytics
• business
• STEM graduate programs

These aren’t small programs; they are the economic backbone of modern universities.

So when these students can’t arrive, universities lose money immediately. And they lose it fast.

Step 2: When Enrollment Drops, Revenue Collapses

Here’s a simple analogy:

Imagine you run a gym. The weight room, the most popular section, brings in 70% of your membership revenue. Now imagine those members suddenly stop showing up because the city delayed renewing their parking permits.

You didn’t do anything wrong.
Your gym didn’t decline in quality.
But the revenue disappears anyway.

That’s what visa delays do to universities.

International students pay full tuition.
Many pay out-of-state rates.
Many pay without federal aid.

Their tuition doesn’t just support their program; it supports the entire university ecosystem.

So when visa processing collapses, revenue collapses.

And then the cuts begin.

Step 3: Cutting Programs Leads to Cutting Everything

The associate director at the event said it plainly: “We got cut across the board.”

Engineering.
Computer science.
Finance.
Analytics.
Support programs.
Administrative budgets.
Student activities.
Events.

You can’t cut a revenue pillar without affecting every floor of the building.

And that’s why the Costco snack table mattered.

It wasn’t about food. It was a clue, a signal, that things had shifted structurally. It was the academic version of switching from name-brand cereal to store-brand because everything suddenly costs more.

Step 4: Everyday Experiences Change, and Students Notice

When universities tighten budgets, the effects show up in daily life:

• no more hot lunches
• fewer catered events
• reduced office hours
• fewer tutors available
• older equipment in labs
• fewer class options
• combined sections
• longer wait times for advisors
• fewer staff at events
• programs quietly shrinking

These are the academic equivalent of seeing fewer cashiers at the grocery store or watching a restaurant switch to disposable cutlery.

Small signs of a bigger problem.

And people feel it long before they understand what caused it.

Step 5: The Ripple Effect Hits the Entire Local Economy

International students don’t just bring tuition money. They bring spending power.

They rent apartments.
They buy groceries.
They ride transit.
They eat out.
They shop locally.
They use healthcare services.
They pay taxes through consumption.
They work part-time jobs on campus.

According to national economic data, one international student contributes tens of thousands of dollars a year to local economies.

So when enrollment drops?

• Property managers feel it.
• Restaurants feel it.
• Bus systems feel it.
• Retail stores feel it.
• Universities feel it.
• Cities feel it.

It’s the multiplier effect in action.

Just as rising gas prices ripple into everything from Uber fares to grocery delivery, fewer students ripple into the economic life of an entire community.

Step 6: Research, Innovation, and Talent Pipelines Shrink

Here’s the part policy-makers often forget:

International students frequently become:

• engineers
• researchers
• AI specialists
• software developers
• entrepreneurs
• medical professionals
• university faculty
• STEM innovators

If they can’t get visas in, they go elsewhere:

• Canada
• Europe
• Australia
• Singapore
• South Korea

These countries streamline their visa processes to attract talent.

Losing top international students means:

• fewer research breakthroughs
• fewer graduate assistants
• fewer scientific publications
• fewer new companies being formed
• fewer patents
• a weakened long-term workforce

Without this labor force, universities struggle to maintain research output. Fewer published papers, fewer funded projects, and fewer new inventions result. Countries like Canada, Germany, and Australia actively recruit these students, creating an international competition for talent.

It’s worth noting that these programs feed directly into industries and startups. AI research at a university lab, for example, often becomes a foundation for a tech startup, which in turn hires dozens of employees and attracts venture capital. When the pipeline of international talent shrinks, both academic research and entrepreneurial innovation slow, a subtle but serious long-term drag on national competitiveness

A Simple Analogy: The Broken Subway System

Imagine a city where everyone relies on the subway.

Now imagine the transportation agency introduces strict new rules that delay maintenance approvals and slow the rollout of new trains.

What happens?

• fewer functioning trains
• more delays
• overcrowded stations
• businesses losing customers
• commuters arriving late
• frustration rising
• neighborhoods declining
• people moving away

The subway doesn’t collapse overnight. Now imagine the city’s subway as a perfect analogy for how universities operate. A well-funded, efficiently managed subway moves millions of commuters daily. Every train running on time supports restaurants near stations, retail shops along subway lines, office workers arriving punctually, and neighborhoods thriving around transit hubs.

Now imagine new rules slow maintenance approvals, and budget cuts reduce the number of trains running. Immediately, some trains run late; stations overcrowd. A single delayed train causes a ripple: office workers arrive late, restaurants lose lunch rush revenue, and shops see fewer customers. Over time, residents might move away, businesses close, and the subway system itself becomes harder to maintain.

That’s exactly how administrative overreach affects universities: one bottleneck, like visa delays, cascades throughout the ecosystem. Staff morale declines, students have fewer opportunities, research slows, the local economy weakens, and the long-term talent pipeline thins. Just like the subway, the system doesn’t collapse overnight, but it loses efficiency, and eventually, the cracks become undeniable.

Step 7: The Domino Effect in One Clean Line

Here’s the chain reaction:

1. Federal administrative delays slow visa approvals.
2. Fewer international students can enter the country.
3. High-revenue university programs lose enrollment.
4. University budgets get slashed across departments.
5. Student experiences decline (events, lunches, tutoring).
6. Staff and faculty face strain and uncertainty.
7. Local businesses lose revenue.
8. Cities lose tax dollars.
9. National research output declines.
10. The country loses global competitiveness.

One delay → many consequences.

This is economics, not politics.

Why International Students Are Essential to Economic Growth

Let’s highlight this clearly, because it’s a major critical truth:

International students are economic assets.

They contribute to:

• university funding
• scientific research
• startup ecosystems
• technological innovation
• healthcare workforce
• long-term national productivity

Many eventually become:

• taxpayers
• homeowners
• entrepreneurs
• community leaders

Cutting off the pipeline, even indirectly, weakens the country.

Final Thoughts: What the Costco Snack Table Really Signified

Looking back at that snack table, it was a small moment loaded with significance. Granola bars, beef jerky, cookies, a small case of pastries, mandarin oranges, and bottled water, simple, adequate, functional. But it represented a shift in resources that had already been years in the making.

Administrative decisions at the federal level may seem distant, but they create a chain reaction that moves down to every level: universities, departments, students, local businesses, and national competitiveness. When a system depends on high-revenue programs like engineering, finance, and computer science, programs heavily supported by international tuition, even a small disruption produces visible consequences.

This story is not about assigning blame; it’s about seeing the bigger picture. Understanding the domino effect, how one operational decision leads to ripple effects across communities and the economy, is crucial. Noticing granola bars in this case instead of hot lunch is the first step in recognizing the hidden cost of systemic constraints.

For policymakers, universities, and students alike, the lesson is clear: small signals matter. Systems are interconnected. And when the cracks appear, understanding them early can help prevent larger failures down the line.

Some people walked into that event expecting a warm meal. They ended up with bottled water, granola bars, and mandarin oranges.

It wasn’t a tragedy.
It wasn’t a failure.
It was a symptom.

A sign that something upstream was broken.

Administrative decisions, even small ones, even operational ones, ripple downward in ways most people never see until the granola bars show up.

In economics, we call this the domino effect of systems failure.

In human terms, it’s simple:

When one part of a system becomes overloaded, everything connected to it adjusts, usually downward.

That day, standing next to that table of snacks, talking with the associate director, I realized the story wasn’t about food at all. It was about the quiet cracks forming in the foundation of higher education. And if we don’t pay attention to the first crack, we certainly won’t be ready for the second.

This blog is read in 50+ countries (and counting). If you’re a student, teacher, or lifelong learner from anywhere in the world, I’m honored you’re here. Economics belongs to all of us.